As was written yesterday, the NBA has presented the NBA Player’s Union (NBPA)with a hardcopy of his new plan, a document that outlines new and extremely different provisions from the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The new proposal includes wording that would alter any pre-existing contracts to conform to the new salary structure. Bird rights, mid-level exceptions, and luxury taxes are all but a thing of the past. The stance taken from this document is not that Stern is threatening a lockout, it is that he is daring the players to lockout.

In the 80s and 90s, the NBPA ruled the league. The true stars, Bird, Magic, and mostly Jordan, were able to dictate every action the league performed. Jordan’s agent, the legendary David Falk, wielded more power at the time than Stern could dream of. These days have now vanished. Dress codes, zone defense, new basketballs, and strict rule changes are at Stern’s whim in today’s NBA, and the player’s union is only a shadow of itself. Will the vaunted summer of 2010 have a different landscape now that upcoming salaries could have a nearly 60% discount?

The summer of 2010 is fondly known as the summer of LeBron. When you hear this, the other associated superstars are Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, while the “second tier” is comprised of Amar’e Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Carlos Boozer, and Joe Johnson. Both groups are split between two factions. The first is the true free agent. This is a player who is playing out the last year of his contract with no remaining options. The second is the early termination option group, or ETO, who can opt out of their current deal and sign anywhere they would like.

The first group is the tried and true free agents. This group is open to sign anywhere they please after the season’s end. Of all the high profile names in the group, only Utah’s Boozer and Atlanta’s Johnson will be available to the highest bidder. Due to the language in the current CBA, players must get raises every so long as their rights are retained by their current team. Therefore, a bona fide superstar such as Johnson could only be signed by Atlanta for more than his current $14,976,754 salary. This seems reasonable, as even with Atlanta’s questionable decision making, retaining Johnson on a max deal makes sense for the future of the franchise. Boozer, on the other hand, saw up and coming power forward Paul Millsap sign a lucrative, four year contract that was given assuming he would eventually replace Boozer. The writing was on the wall, and now Boozer seems destined to take a significant pay cut from his current $12,323,900 pay.

If the new CBA is ratified prior to the 2010-2011 season, we will have a better idea of maximum salary rate for players. While I don’t expect the number to be the project 60-65% reduction rate, 40-50% may be one of the feasible alternatives. While this seems pretty significant, it what makes the second group of free agents, the ETO sanct, should carefully review the current proposal before opting out of their current contracts. The reasoning is simple from an economic standpoint. If all player’s salaries are set to plummet and also be bound by a hard cap this summer, there is no chance in hell they will come close to the current salaries they’d be optioning out of. If they were to sign with a different team straight up and not be party to a sign and trade deal, they would lose their Bird rights and the salary boost that comes with them.

How I’m interpreting this is that the vaunted 2010 free agent class will be, well, not so vaunted. Nowitzki’s salary next year will be $21,513,524 if he does not opt out. If the cap descends as much as expected, that means that the maximum he would make would be approximately $8,000,000 per year. At that rate, he would have to play three seasons to earn more than he would by only playing next year. Let me put it to you more plainly: everyone is staying put. Unless teams can work out sign and trades, there is no player in their right mind who would leave early, or at least leave without their Bird rights which are retained through the sign and trade process.

Players say they’re all about winning, but when the window of making ridiculous salaries has a defined end time, it’s clear to me that everyone stays. This means that Cleveland will keep LeBron, Miami will keep Wade, and et cetera. LeBron can no longer opt out of a deal that would pay him $17,149,243 for next year. Same goes for Wade and Bosh. Anyone in their right mind cannot turn down that kind of money. Paul Pierce can opt out of his $21,513,521 salary for next season, but that went from being an optimistic possibility to a fleeting thought. Cleveland residents are rejoicing, and hoops fans in the tri-state area mourn. Stern has not only crushed the excitement behind the NBA’s upcoming free agent period, he has also made a declaration of war. A lockout is now a guarantee, so enjoy the next season and a half.

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