The NBA draft is an exceptional spectacle. The NBA has a pre draft “lottery” to determine which team will receive the top overall pick. This is done through a system based on a number of ping pong balls which represent a percentage of a team’s chances to win. After the lottery, the highlight of the offseason is a heated debate centered around who the number one pick will be. In 2007, the discussion was either franchise center Greg Oden or a prolific scorer in Kevin Durant. In 2008, a similar discussion over whether to take crafty point guard Derrick Rose or the multi-talented forward Michael Beasley. The 2009 draft had potential for that drama, but sometimes the cat gets let out of the bag a little prematurely. Granted, Blake Griffin was the obvious choice in what was thought to be a diluted draft, but the talent that has shown itself this year had made a lot of GMs second guess their scouting department after seeing that this draft was much deeper than originally projected. Will the NFL’s new schedule for the 2010 draft approach the level of drama that the NBA’s maintains?

The NFL Draft has become immensely popular over the last several years. The Draft in 2009 had more viewers than any hockey, basketball or baseball game during the same weekend, and drew an incredible, record setting 6.3 million viewers. This year, the first round has been moved to Thursday. Not coincidentally, this is the most popular night of the week for TV viewing. The NFL estimates more than 10 million viewers for the first time since the draft began being televised. The Draft will be covered by ESPN and the NFL Network, and is held at Radio City Music Hall in New York. The first round of the 2010 NFL Draft starts on Thursday April 22nd at 7:30 pm Eastern, with the second and third round on Friday. The final rounds four through seven on will be aired on Saturday. While this entire format is enticing and laced with anticipation, is it really worth it if everyone knows who the number one pick is?

In 2006, a disturbing trend began. On the night prior to the 2006 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans would announce that they had signed the North Carolina State standout Mario Williams to a six-year, $54 million contract. The signing ended speculation that Houston would select Williams, USC running back Reggie Bush, or Texas quarterback Vince Young. Many believe that Bush was inflating his value, so Williams and his agent provided a lower (if 54 mil can actually be considered low) offer in order to guarantee the top selection. The suspense had been alleviated, but the buzz was more of shock that the then obvious choice, Bush, was not selected.

The following year, LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell skipped his final season of NCAA eligibility with LSU and entered the 2007 NFL Draft. He was selected by the Oakland Raiders as the 1st overall draft pick. Russell decided to take the opposite approach of previous top pick Mario Williams. The theory that Russell and his agent believed was that by not agreeing to sign prior to the draft would shift leverage to their favor, as they could then threaten a holdout. After many attempts to reach a contract agreement and resulting failures, Russell held out through training camp. The holdout extended into the first weeks of the 2007 NFL regular season, when on September 12, 2007, he signed a six-year contract worth up to $68 million, with $31.5 million guaranteed. This proved to be a worthy gamble on Russell and his agent’s part, as the money was top shelf, though his career has been a failure up to this point.

The next year, even more suspense was lost, along with new precedents being set. The Miami Dolphins had the privilege of making the first selection in the draft. Two weeks prior to the 2008 NFL Draft, they determined that they wanted to negotiate with offensive tackle Jake Long to be their pick. They came to their conclusion after offering the same contract to Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan, and Virginia defensive end Chris Long, turned down by both. After meeting with Jake Long’s agent, an agreement was made on April 22, 2008. This was four days before draft would begin on April 26th. Long agreed to a five-year, $57.75 million deal with the Dolphins. The deal included $30 million in guaranteed money and made Long the first overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. This also made him, at the time, the highest paid offensive lineman in NFL history. Ryan would go on to sign a $72 million deal that contained $34.75 million in guaranteed money. The contract made Ryan the 4th highest paid player in the NFL behind Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Carson Palmer. Not only was the suspense long (no pun intended) drained come the start of the draft, but the value of being the top overall pick now was strictly tied into positional value.

Most experts predicted that #1 pick in the 2009 draft would be a difficult decision if two college quarterbacks left school early. They were Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford and Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford would elect to stay another year, while Stafford would wisely option out of his college eligibility and declare for the 2009 NFL draft. On April 24, 2009, Stafford agreed to record contract terms with the Detroit Lions to become the first overall pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, one day before the draft was held. The six-year contract contains $41.7 million in guaranteed money, which is the most guaranteed to any player in NFL history, and also warrants a total value of up to $78 million. Many experts scoffed at Bradford’s notion to pass up such an opportunity for instant wealth, and they seemed correct with this notion until approximately a month ago. Bradford would get injured against BYU during the first game of his junior campaign, spraining a joint in his shoulder. He would return three weeks later and seemed to return to his top prospect form. The following game, Bradford would re-injure his shoulder, doubly enforcing the idea that passing up the guaranteed draft position was an unwise move. After having successful surgery on his shoulder, Bradford measured at 6′4 1/4, 236 pounds during his weigh-in at the NFL combine. He packed on 15 lbs of muscle, proving to scouts he has been a dedicated worker to solidify his draft value. While the physical tools were impressive, it was the performance at his pro day that would give him a lock at the top spot. Bradford completed 62-of-63 passes at the pro day, the only miss coming on a drop by an Oklahoma wideout. He showed an impressively strong build, exhibited a lightning quick release, and put plenty of velocity behind the ball with outstanding accuracy. The combination of Bradford’s work ethic, intangibles, and natural skillset have cemented his place atop the 2010 NFL draft.

It is approximately two weeks until the NFL draft begins. The format of the draft is now set up to be as thrilling and suspenseful as possible. Teams will now have entire days to restack their draft boards for the top of the second and fourth rounds. This should entice many trades and moves that may not be typically seen in previous draft year formats. With all the redesign that has been put into the draft, should some form of prevention be put into place to prevent the top pick from being known until the draft? The pick is trending to be Sam Bradford, barring an unforseen surprise. While it is unfavorable to have a guess that Bradford is the undisputed pick, having a signed and agreed contract entirely ruins the surprise. With the CBA coming up for renewal, is having a clause that states contracts for first round picks cannot be negotiated until after the first day of the draft? If we’re going to tune in to prime time to watch, at least let the plot thicken before the selection is made. If this were the Oscars, such a spoiler would never be allowed. With something far more precious to all of us as the NFL, let’s leave the suspense to the actual viewing.

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